Monday, 5 June 2017

#53 Matched Betting Accas

My introduction to matched betting was towards the back end of 2016. I wrote about it here.

I work in the industry, enjoy betting on the huge variety of sites and really can't believe that I'm nearly £3k better off because of it.

I use oddsmonkey.com, haven't tried any of the other operators but find there approach and systems really simple and easy to use.

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I love matched betting :) Find if really enjoyable. 

I tried making money from sequential laying accumlators and indeed did make some money. However, the time it was taking up to remember to lay each leg was really a pain. I missed a couple and had ate up some losses.

I'm now (albeit can only continue when the season starts up again) running with a no-lay method.

Here's how I'm getting on so far...


I've placed 8 acca's.

3 have won.
3 have had 1 leg lose. Meaning I have received a free bet.
2 have lost more than 1 leg. 

Reading online into the maths and likelihood this seems to be closely aligned with the probability of the scenarios. 

My expected cumulative earnings is £34.61. In actuality I have earnt £89.53.

There is the risk that I will go on a losing run but I've built up confidence in the odds monkey earned value and trust this to follow through. 

The most important thing for me is that this is

a) more repeatable than waiting for promotions from operators
b) less time consuming that laying
c) enjoyable. As it carries risk I can actually get excited/disappointed about results - whilst still understanding in the long run I'll make a profit anyway

Now just to wait until the new season comes around !!!

3 comments:

  1. Laying sequentially is time-consuming but I just can't stomach the losses with no lays, even though I know in the long run, the EV means I'll make a profit. I tried my own run of no lays, hit 9 losses, no wins, one acca insurance. The few no lays I do now are just mugs or plain old gambling, which occasionally still pays off! Good luck in the next season!

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    Replies
    1. Indeed, it's all about that ability to stomach losses. Potentially I was lucky and had a decent run right from the beginning allowing me to build up a small buffer before I'm into losses, though it is small. I struggle with the Racing offers and so see this is the bread and butter really now!

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